Forecasting & Monitoring
Portfolio-wide forward projections · unified alert board · macro scenario analysis
- High Severity
- 2
+2 vs last week
since last month
- Medium Alerts
- 5
+1 vs last week
since last month
- SaaS Decelerating
- 1 / 10
Monitor closely
since last month
- LCR Status
- 128%
+28% above min
since last month
Unified Alert Board
Cross-module threshold monitoring — sorted by severity
| Module | Entity | Metric | Current | Threshold | Severity | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SaaS | Tamara | Churn Rate | 3.2% | 2.5% | HIGH | Breach |
| Risk & Compliance | AI Engine | AML Flags | 3 Active | 0 | HIGH | Breach |
| SaaS | Tamara | LTV:CAC | 3.1× | 5.0× | MEDIUM | Warning |
| SaaS | Paymob | LTV:CAC | 3.6× | 5.0× | MEDIUM | Warning |
| SaaS | Tamara | NRR | 112% | 120% | MEDIUM | Warning |
| Risk & Compliance | AI Engine | Open Alerts | 12 | 5 | MEDIUM | Breach |
| Treasury | Treasury | Cash at Risk | SAR 180M | SAR 150M | MEDIUM | Warning |
| Liquidity | Portfolio | LCR Ratio | 128% | 100% | LOW | Tracking |
| Market Signals | CBOE | VIX Level | 16.2 | 28.0 | LOW | Tracking |
SaaS Portfolio ARR Forecast
8 quarters historical + 4 quarters projected (★ = forecast) · SAR M
Per-Company ARR Projections — Q1′26 to Q4′26 (SAR M)
Quarterly compound growth derived from live MoM MRR rate per company · capped at 45% quarterly
| Company | Region | Current ARR | Q1 ′26 | Q2 ′26 | Q3 ′26 | Q4 ′26 | MoM MRR | Trajectory |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
🇸🇦 Salla | GCC | 45 | 57 | 72 | 91 | 115 | 8.2% | ↑ Accel. +156% YoY |
🇸🇦 Foodics | GCC | 82 | 99 | 119 | 143 | 172 | 6.4% | → Stable +110% YoY |
🇸🇦 Tamara | GCC | 165 | 186 | 210 | 237 | 267 | 4.1% | ↓ Decel. +62% YoY |
🇸🇦 Lean Tech | GCC | 31 | 45 | 65 | 94 | 136 | 14.3% | ↑ Accel. +339% YoY |
🇦🇪 Paymob | GCC | 53 | 69 | 90 | 117 | 152 | 9.1% | ↑ Accel. +187% YoY |
🇺🇸 CloudBase | Global | 356 | 391 | 430 | 473 | 520 | 3.2% | → Stable +46% YoY |
🇬🇧 DataSync | Global | 82 | 101 | 124 | 153 | 189 | 7.2% | → Stable +130% YoY |
🇸🇬 FlowMetrics | Global | 56 | 78 | 108 | 150 | 208 | 11.5% | ↑ Accel. +271% YoY |
🇩🇪 AutoPilot | Global | 154 | 178 | 206 | 239 | 277 | 5% | → Stable +80% YoY |
🇮🇳 NexusAPI | Global | 67 | 86 | 111 | 143 | 184 | 8.8% | → Stable +175% YoY |
Macro Scenario Analysis
Portfolio return sensitivity to oil, rates & FX — 4 scenarios
| Scenario | Oil | Rates Δ | FX | LCR | Avg NRR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull Case | $95 | −50bps | USD +2% | 142% | 128% |
| Base Case | $75 | 0bps | Flat | 128% | 122% |
| Bear Case | $55 | +150bps | USD −3% | 108% | 114% |
| Stress Case | $40 | +300bps | USD −8% | 84% | 105% |
Liquidity Forward Paths
13-week HQLA trajectory (SAR M) under 4 stress scenarios · dashed = stressed
Base Case W12
SAR 2,904M
Mild Stress W12
SAR 2,220M
Moderate W12
SAR 1,980M
Severe W12
SAR 1,320M
Treasury 13-Week Rolling Cash Forecast
Net weekly cash flow delta — SAR M · positive = net inflow · negative = net outflow
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